"Greenland Climate" is part of the research project "Regional Climate Change in Greenland and Surrounding Seas" ("Regionale klimaændringer for Grønland og omkringliggende hav"). The aim is to establish a data and knowledge base on the expected climate change in the Arctic, based on regional climate modelling, where the projections cover both meteorology and oceanography.

Background

Simulations with global climate models indicate that significant climate change will take place in the Arctic within the next 100 years. Already now, changes in Arctic conditions such as the retreat and thinning of sea ice as well as increasing temperatures around Greenland are clear signals that the living conditions for humans, animals and plants may change dramatically. Hence, the Arctic communities face great challenges in terms of adapting to the changing climate. This includes the marine environment, where changes in the freshwater runoff may give rise to changes in temperature and salinity in the ocean and perhaps even to changes in the ocean currents.

Aim of the project

In present climate models the horizontal resolution is insufficient in order to provide reliable information on the expected climate change on the local and regional scale and thus to allow for effect studies, e.g. as recommended by the ACIA report (2005).

The aim of the present project is, based on a regional climate model, to perform realistic projections for Greenland with sufficiently highly resolution to facilitate climate effect studies. The projections will be processed and made readily available in an internet-based database. This database could, e.g., be used to evaluate the available data in terms of determining a future strategy for collecting environmental monitoring data.

An ocean model coupled to the regional climate model will be used to perform projections for the seas around Greenland. Such simulations provide a foundation for studying the specific effect of climate change on the marine environment in details. The main idea is that the hydrodynamic current model at any time may be supplemented by new, "decoupled" modules, e.g. simulating oil drift, ecological and marine biological factors, or conservative pollutants. It is well known that fishing is one of the main contributors to the economy of Greenland, which is why the coupling to an ocean model will be a valuable tool in terms of longterm planning and monitoring of the fishing industry.

In general, it is expected that an improved knowledge base on climate change in Greenland will contribute to the development of a strategy for adaptation and hence to the development of the Greenlandic community as such.

Dr. Martin Stendel (Regional Climate Modelling)

Danish Climate Centre, DMI

Tel. +45 3915 7446 Fax. +45 3915 7460 E-mail

Dr. Nicolai Kliem (Ocean Modelling)

Centre for Ocean and Ice, DMI

Tel. +45 3915 7211 Fax. +45 3927 0684 E-mail